ST. GEORGE — It didn’t take long for Zach Renstrom, Washington County’s top water manager, to speak about recent events involving the Colorado River and two of the associated reservoirs during this address at the 2023 What’s Up Down South Economic Summit held in St. George Wednesday.

Before a large gathering at the Dixie Convention Center, Renstrom, who serves as the general manager of the Washington County Water Conservancy District, said people needed to remember that the Virgin River is a part of the overall Colorado River Basin.

“The thing that’s important to remember is the Virgin River is the Colorado River – it’s a tributary,” Renstrom said. “Through the Colorado River, we are connected to cities like Cheyenne, Wyoming; Denver, Colorado; San Diego and all of the discussion on the river right now.”

Concern over depleting flows on the Colorado River, blamed on the ongoing “megadrought,” climate change and overuse, had skyrocketed over the last two years as the decades-long event became increasingly severe. Overall flow of the river has dropped an estimated 20% over the last 20 years. And snowpack in recent years, which is largely responsible for filling the river and its major reservoirs, has been dismal prior to this year’s heavy snowpack.

Worries over power generation

Currently, Lake Mead and Lake Powell are at the lowest points they’ve ever been and threaten to drop further if a way isn’t found to reverse that course. While both of these reservoirs supply drinking water to millions of people across the West, they also provide electrical power via the Glen Canyon and Hoover dams.

The minimum levels for power generation at Lead Mead and Lake Powell is 950 feet and around 3,500 feet respectively. If water levels drop below those points, generation at the dams is shut down. Current elevations sit at 1,045 feet for Lake Mead and 3,523 feet for Lake Powell.

“We’re going to have a major electrical disruption in the Western United States” if that happens, Renstrom said.

Lakes Powell and Mead are major sources of cheap hydroelectric power and it will be expensive to replace them, Renstrom added.

A worst-case scenario outlined by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation that Renstrom referenced predicted that Western communities would experience roaming brownouts and blackouts for a time if the dams stop producing hydroelectric power. The federal agency operates the major dams on the Colorado River system.

In order to return water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead to a state where the threat to power generation is greatly reduced, the region needs to experience multiple years of record-level snowpack that would essentially end the drought, Renstrom said.

Tensions over demanded water cuts

Last summer, the Bureau of Reclamation gave the seven Colorado Basin states (Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and California) a deadline to come up with a way to cut between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet of water – or up to roughly one-third – on top of previously implemented reductions. Federal officials threatened that if the states couldn’t figure it out, they would be forced to step in and start mandating water reductions.

It was announced Monday that Utah and five other states had reached an agreement on the water cuts and gave their proposal to the U.S. Interior Department.

However, the seventh state, California — or more specifically the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California — did not agree and proposed its own plan Tuesday that Renstrom said “is not acceptable.”

California is a part of the Lower Colorado River Basin that includes Nevada and Arizona. Southwest Utah is also a part of the Lower Basin geographically, yet is generally counted as a part of the Upper Basin due to Utah being a part of it along with Colorado, Wyoming and New Mexico.

Unlike the other states’ plan, California’s does not factor the roughly 1.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water lost to evaporation and transportation. Counting the water lost to evaporation would result in major water cuts for California.

Instead, it proposes reducing water taken out of Lake Mead by one million acre-feet, with 400,000 acre feet coming from its own users. The state previously outlined that level of cuts in October. Arizona would bear the brunt of bigger cuts — 560,000 acre-feet — while Nevada would make up the rest. Those numbers are based on discussions from prior negotiations, California’s proposal states.

An acre-foot is enough water to supply two to three U.S. households for a year.

In total, California water managers say their plan could save between one million and two million acre-feet of water based on the elevation levels at Lake Mead, from which Arizona, California, Nevada and Mexico draw their share of the river.

The plan would take effect if Lake Mead hits 1,000 elevation.

Where the potential conflict between the California plan and the other states arises is in the amount it demands communities outside of California cut their own water use, Renstrom said.

The plan, as Renstrom said he understands it, “wants cities in Arizona to go completely dry of water.” He further stated that a report from the California water district published last month also proposes areas on the Lower Basin where potential cuts could occur – including Washington County.

That plan, he said, would call for the county to reduce its use of the Virgin River by 6,000 acre-feet so that amount could flow to the Colorado River and eventually to Lake Mead.

In 2020, Washington County used an estimated 62,000 acre-feet of water, Karry Rathje, a spokeswoman for the water district, told St. George News. Based on that amount, 6,000 acre-feet would be a near-10% reduction in the county’s overall draw from the Virgin River.

For its part, officials with the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California state their plan is a far better framework for the management of the Colorado River while also respecting the pre-existing “Law of the River” that they claim the other states’ plan is overstepping.

“The modeling framework outlines a constructive approach to achieve additional water use reductions while protecting infrastructure, prioritizing public health and safety, and upholding the existing body of laws, compacts, decrees, and agreements that govern Colorado River operations (known collectively as the Law of the River),” officials with California’s largest water district said in a press release.

“The approach builds on the California agencies’ commitments announced last fall to voluntarily conserve an additional 400,000 acre-feet of water each year through 2026 to protect storage in Lake Mead and help stabilize the Colorado River reservoir system.”

Though California did not reach an agreement with the other states, parties involved have stated they plan to keep talking.

“I’m not sure how it’s all going to end, but Utah needs to put its fighting gloves on,” Renstrom said.

Around 40 million people across the West and Mexico rely on the Colorado River for power, water and additional needs. According to the Colorado River Authority of Utah, a third of Utahns rely on the river for their drinking water.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

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