‘We’ll be watching’: Are the conditions ripe for a repeat of the 2005 Santa Clara flood?

ST. GEORGE — Tuesday marked 18 years since what is considered one of the most devastating floods in the area’s history washed away 20 homes in Santa Clara and damaged 10 others beyond repair. 

File photo of the Virgin River just upstream of the Santa Clara River during the Jan. 10, 2005 flood, Washington City, Utah | Photo by D.E. Wilberg/U.S. Geological Survey, St. George News

And local officials say the conditions now are similar to what they were in January 2005 and are on alert.

“We are the second-wettest year as of Jan. 10 and if you all remember what happened 18 years ago, what happened on Jan 10 is it rained on snow,” Santa Clara Mayor Rick Rosenberg said during the Santa Clara City Council meeting Wednesday night. “It rained on the west mountains and the 2005 flood happened.”

Rosenberg said the Washington County Water Conservancy District has been on “red alert” for potential flooding, and the look of the Santa Clara River was a red alert of its own for the mayor.  

“The Santa Clara turned red today – that always makes me a little nervous,” said Rosenberg, who is also a specialist in floodplain management as a civil engineer.

The flood in January 2005 came from about .7 inches of rain locally, though there were nearby areas that received more than 7 inches of rain. It came after years of drought and within a week of when a similar storm dumped snow in the local mountains, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Instead of the normal trickle of 5 cubic feet per second flowing through the Santa Clara River, around 6,200 cubic feet of water per second flowed down the river. In Bloomington, 19,600 cubic feet of water came through Virgin River, knocking out bridges. 

According to the Utah Department of Emergency Management, the 2005 flood caused $85 million in personal property damage and an additional $140 million in damage to local infrastructure. It took eight years for the Federal Emergency Management Agency to take care of all the claims. 

The National Weather Service has forecast that another band of storms will be coming in this weekend and it will bring .5 to 1 inch of rain in the Virgin River basin as well as snow to the mountains and Iron County further north.

“You’re definitely getting more rain in the valley coming in Saturday,” National Weather Service meteorologist Nicole DeSmet, based in Salt Lake City, said.

She added the whole southwest is right now in a pattern where bands of rain are coming through between one- to two-day breaks, and this band will be more punishing for the southern half of Utah. 

Graph comparing soil saturation over the last 18 years in Santa Clara, Utah, as of Jan. 12, 2023 with emphasis on 2023 and 2005 | Graph courtesy of Glen Merrill/National Weather Service, St. George News | Click to enlarge

“Your area is going to see more of the heavy rain in comparison to the rest of Utah.”

It comes after several days of snow has built up in the local mountains.

“I was told there are 59 inches on Kolob. It’s a super wet snow,” Rosenberg said. “It’s a wet season and I love it to be wet season, but I hope it remains cold and comes off slow.”

Glen Merrill, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service’s Salt Lake City office, said the area is right now seeing a “similar set-up, but not to the extent as 2005.”

He said three things stood out about January 2005: Record soil moisture saturation in the Santa Clara basin, record snowpack in the nearby mountains and a record water-year to date. He said all three factors are “well above average” right now, but not as high as they were in 2005. 

“The key takeaway is that we are lacking a rain event to the extent of which occurred during the Jan. 8 to 12, 2005 period,” Merrill said. “Such an event is not forecast at this time, but can’t be ruled out moving forward as we continue through the winter and early spring months. If a similar event does occur, flooding potential will be elevated. We’ll be watching.”

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