SALT LAKE CITY — There’s new polling data in the race for the U.S. Senate and it ought to be good news for independent candidate Evan McMullin.
The latest independent poll by Dan Jones & Associates puts incumbent Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) and McMullin neck and neck with just over a month until Election Day.
The challenger should be trumpeting those results on his usual Facebook posts, but isn’t.
That’s because the McMullin campaign has been steadily feeding his supporters news of an internal poll that puts McMullin in the lead since early September.
As recently as Sept. 26, the independent candidate’s campaign again posted news of its internal polling that shows McMullin ahead with 47 percent of voters compared to Lee with 46 percent.
On Sept. 22, however, Dan Jones & Associates released new polling data that found 36 percent of registered voters favored Lee and 34 percent favored McMullin.
As usual, the devil is in the details.
The polling by the Dan Jones organization was commissioned by The Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah.
During the period of Sept. 3 to 21, that survey reached out to 815 registered Utah voters.
In addition to the 36 to 34 percent ranking for Lee and McMullin respectively, that survey found that 16 percent of voters were still undecided, 5 percent favored third-party candidates James Arthur Hansen or Timmy Williams and another 8 percent fell into the dubious category of “other.”
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.43 percentage points. That means that the race is a dead heat.
The candidates themselves are placing their faith in their own internal polling.
A survey of 800 likely voters during the period Aug. 29 to Sept. 1 found McMullin ahead by one point (47 to 46 percent), with 7 percent undecided, according to the McMullin campaign.
After polling 500 likely voters in the period Aug. 4 to 5, Lee’s campaign expressed confidence in their candidate’s 18-point lead (50 percent to 32 percent).
In general, polls of registered voters are considered to be more accurate.
The problem for both candidates is the mass of undecided voters revealed by both independent and internal polling.
Lee is counting on his reputation as a staunch conservative and his opposition to the disastrous progressive agenda of President Joe Biden to carry him to victory in November.
Other than being opposed to Lee, the McMullin campaign has been thus far short on the specifics of their candidate’s agenda.
McMullin has vowed, however, not to caucus with Democrats or Republicans on Capitol Hill if elected. That should place him in an ideal position to influence events in the Senate, he says.
Written by Charlie Schill, Cache Valley Daily
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